Bill Simmons’ New Book
I’m so excited to get my hands on Bill Simmons’ book, The Book of Basketball.
I hope people will recognize some different influences in there: A little Bill James, a little David Halberstam, a little Malcolm Gladwell, more than a little William Goldman (I even recruited him to write something about Dave DeBusschere for the book)—basically, every writer that ever meant something to me is represented in some way. I spent three years writing it and it turned out exactly the way I wanted it to turn out. It’s the best book I will ever write and it’s kind of sad to say that, because I’m not even forty yet, but I already came to grips with the fact that, yes, this is the best book I will ever write. I know more about this subject than anything else, I’m more passionate about this subject than anything else, and that’s that. So it’s all downhill from here. Anyway, you will remember this book. You may remember it because it’s big enough to use as a doorstop, or because you accidentally dropped it on your foot and broke it, but still, you will remember it. Also, I get to swear. And I make a very compelling case that George Mikan was the John Holmes of basketball. I am more proud of that than anything.
In this interview with The New Yorker, Simmons sums up my thoughts on the “Moneyball for Basketball” case.
Everyone hoards their stats so carefully that we’re just starting to find out about how it’s changing, but these teams have all the numbers now and know exactly how to use them. I don’t think it can go much further; some seem to think that adjusted plus-minus will be figured out but I’m not seeing it. We have figured out how to measure specific skills, but too much of basketball depends on interaction and how a player is used for anyone to say, “I have figured out how to measure Player X against Player Y!” The other problem is that only the teams have the money to track all the stats that help in this respect—shooting percentages by zones, defensive stops on isolation plays, success rate of scores on drives, etc. Us common folk can’t track this crap ourselves.
I think the next revolution will be more chemistry-based: Teams valuing teamwork and personality more than ever and putting some real thought into how to build a true team. We got a glimpse of this last winter when Phoenix shopped Amare Stoudemire and nobody really wanted him. Why? Because he’s a pain in the ass. He’s not a bad guy, but he’s a me-first prima donna who doesn’t care about defense or making teammates better. Teams are starting to realize, “These guys make me better on paper, but I can’t win titles with them.” That will be the most fascinating subplot going forward—a new method for evaluating players that doesn’t have as much to do with statistics.
Tags: basketball, bill simmons, books, sports